Then I started digging more. And got intrigued by what I was finding.
I'll start with yesterday's and todays stuff, then we'll do the thymewarp to last summer.
The Russian-Georgian War: Implications for the Middle East
- Moscow formulated far-reaching goals when it carefully prepared - over a period of at least two and a half years - for a land invasion of Georgia. These goals included: expelling Georgian troops and effectively terminating Georgian sovereignty in South Ossetia and Abkhazia; bringing down President Mikheil Saakashvili and installing a more pro-Russian leadership in Tbilisi; and preventing Georgia from joining NATO.
- Russia's long-term strategic goals include increasing its control of the Caucasus, especially over strategic energy pipelines. If a pro-Russian regime is established in Georgia, it will bring the strategic Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Erzurum (Turkey) gas pipeline under Moscow's control.
- In recent years, Moscow granted the majority of Abkhazs and South Ossetians Russian citizenship. Use of Russian citizenship to create a "protected" population residing in a neighboring state to undermine its sovereignty is a slippery slope which is now leading to a redrawing of the former Soviet borders.
- Russian continental power is on the rise. Israel should understand it and not provoke Moscow unnecessarily, while defending its own national security interests staunchly. Small states need to treat nuclear armed great powers with respect.
- U.S. intelligence-gathering and analysis on the Russian threat to Georgia failed. So did U.S. military assistance to Georgia, worth around $2 billion over the last 15 years. This is something to remember when looking at recent American intelligence assessments of the Iranian nuclear threat or the unsuccessful training of Palestinian Authority security forces against Hamas.
The long-term outcomes of the current Russian-Georgian war will be felt far and wide, from Afghanistan to Iran, and from the Caspian to the Mediterranean. The war is a mid-sized earthquake which indicates that the geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, and nations in the Middle East, including Israel, need to take notice.
Preliminary Conclusions From The War In Georgia
- The political Group of Eight has de facto been transformed into a G7. The series of political defeats suffered by the Russian leadership, starting with the Rose Revolution in 2003, the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004 and continuing through the NATO summit in Bucharest in April, has been extended by a new failure.
- The main achievement of the Russian leadership -- which the modern world could not (or did not want to) believe -- is the resurrection of fear of the "Russian bear." The world will long remember its fear and (albeit temporary) helplessness.
Russia threatens nuclear attack on Poland over US missile shield deal
Only 24 hours after the weapons agreement was signed Russia's deputy chief of staff warned Poland "is exposing itself to a strike 100 per cent".
General Anatoly Nogovitsyn said that any new US assets in Europe could come under Russian nuclear attack with his forces targeting "the allies of countries having nuclear weapons".
He told Russia's Interfax news agency: "By hosting these, Poland is making itself a target. This is 100 per cent certain. It becomes a target for attack. Such targets are destroyed as a first priority."
Russia's nuclear rhetoric marks an intense new phase in the war of words over Georgia. The Caucasus conflict has spiralled into a Cold War style confrontation between Moscow and Washington in less than a week.
The stand off between the two cold War powers was underlined by Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, who dismissed US claims that the silo is a deterrent against 'rogue states' like Iran as "a fairy tale". He told reporters at the Black Sea resort of Sochi: "The deployment of new missile defence facilities in Europe is aimed against the Russian Federation."
President George W. Bush in a brief but pointed statement earlier in the day said: "The Cold War is over… Bullying and intimidation are not acceptable ways to conduct foreign policy in the 21st century."
Bad Russia! No gold star for you!
Iran gambles over Georgia's crisis
Behind Iran's official silence is a combination of factors. These range from Iran's common cause with Moscow against expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), interpreting this crisis as a major setback for NATO's "eastward expansion" in light of the unabashed pro-West predilections of Tbilisi's government, to Iran's sensitivity to Russia's national security concerns. The latter are heightened by the US's plans to install anti-missile systems in Eastern Europe, not to overlook Iran's concern as not to give the Kremlin any ammunition that could be used against it in Tehran's standoff over its nuclear program.
Representing a serious new rift in US-Russia relations, the conflict in the Caucasus, paralyzing the UN Security Council and igniting Cold War-type rhetoric between the two military superpowers, is simultaneously a major distraction from the Iran nuclear crisis and may even spell doom for the multilateralist "Iran Six" diplomacy. This involves the US, Britain, Russia, France, China and Germany in negotiations over Iran's uranium-enrichment program, which some believed is aimed at making nuclear weapons.
Rice calls on Moscow to quit 'at once'
Tensions between Washington and Moscow took a new turn yesterday as Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, called on Russian troops to withdraw from occupied areas in Georgia "immediately". She made the call after Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgian president, signed a new ceasefire agreement with Russia.
Her call came as Nicolas Sarkozy, French president, spoke to Dmitry Medvedev, his Russian counterpart, who agreed to sign the accord and said that Moscow would "scrupulously" respect the elements of the agreement, "notably those concerning the withdrawal of Russian forces". However, the French statement gave no indication of when Mr Medvedev might sign the agreement.
Ms Rice's visit to Tbilisi capped a week that saw the brief Russia-Georgia conflict turn from a hot but localised war into a diplomatic confrontation between Moscow and Washington with cold war overtones.
"Our most urgent task today is the immediate and orderly withdrawal of Russian armed forces and the return of those forces to Russia," Ms Rice said. "Russian forces need to leave Georgia at once."
Or I'll wag my finger at you!
Bush: No room for debate on status of breakaway provinces
US President George W. Bush sent a stern warning to Russia on Saturday that it cannot lay claim to two breakaway provinces in neighboring Georgia, a US ally, and said there was no room for debate on that point.
Searching for signs of progress, Bush said Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's signing Saturday of a cease-fire plan was "an important development. That's a hopeful step," Bush told reporters at his ranch. "Russia now needs to honor that agreement" and withdraw forces from the much smaller former Soviet state.The Russian foreign minister said Thursday that Georgia could "forget about" getting back the two separatist regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Medvedev also met with their leaders in Kremlin this past week, raising the prospect that Moscow could absorb the regions even though the territory is internationally recognized as being within Georgia's borders.
Libya says Russia emerging as counterbalance to U.S. dominance
MOSCOW, August 14 (RIA Novosti) - Libya said the conflict in Georgia and its breakaway republic of South Ossetia has signaled an end to the dominance of the United States in global affairs, a Russian daily reported on Thursday.
"What happened in Georgia is a good sign, which means America is no longer the sole world power setting the rules of the game," the Libyan president's eldest son Seif al Islam Qaddafi said in an interview with Kommersant.
"There is a balance in the world now. Russia is resurging, which is good for us, for the entire Middle East," said Seif al Islam, who runs the Qaddafi Foundation, a non-governmental body, told the paper.
US must share power in new world order, says Turkey's controversial president
Days after Russia scored a stunning geopolitical victory in the Caucasus, President Abdullah Gül of Turkey said he saw a new multipolar world emerging from the wreckage of war.
The conflict in Georgia, Gül asserted, showed that the United States could no longer shape global politics on its own, and should begin sharing power with other countries.
"I don't think you can control all the world from one centre," Gül told the Guardian. "There are big nations. There are huge populations. There is unbelievable economic development in some parts of the world. So what we have to do is, instead of unilateral actions, act all together, make common decisions and have consultations with the world. A new world order, if I can say it, should emerge."
Russian Troops in No Rush to Withdraw From Georgia (Update1)
Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Hours after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed a European Union-brokered peace plan to end a week-long war with Georgia, his troops were dug in around the town of Gori, signaling they're in no rush to retreat.
Gori, near the breakaway South Ossetia region that sparked the conflict, is the transport hub that connects Georgia's east and west. Russian troops withdrew their checkpoints this afternoon to positions about half a kilometer (0.3 miles) behind the town of Kaspi, located between Gori and the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. A reporter for Bloomberg News was among a group of journalists traveling with the Russian military at the government's invitation.
Georgia forced to accept a Russian occupation
President Saakashvili was forced to accept defeat yesterday as he signed a peace agreement that gives the Russian Army the right to patrol on Georgian soil.
In a critical amendment to the ceasefire drawn up by President Sarkozy of France, the Kremlin forced Mr Saakashvili to accept that Russian troops could control a buffer zone of Georgian territory up to 10km beyond the border of the breakaway region of South Ossetia.
Mr Saakashvili was humiliated further when the final text of the agreement, delivered personally by Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, removed a reference to Russian recognition of Georgia’s territorial integrity. It referred only to independence and sovereignty, a day after Ser-gei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, said that the world could forget about Georgia’s territorial integrity.
After signing the peace agreement, an emotional Mr Saakashvili said defiantly: “A significant part of Georgian territory remains under foreign military occupation. Never, ever will Georgia reconcile itself with the occupation of even one square kilometre of its territory.”
Georgia rail bridge blown up; Russia rejects blame
KASPI, Georgia - Georgia accused Russian troops on Saturday of blowing up a railway bridge on the main line west of the capital Tbilisi, but Russia denied carrying out any such operation.
A Reuters cameraman near the town of Kaspi, 45 km (30 miles) west of Tbilisi, said one end of the bridge had collapsed on to the bank of the Mtkvari River in a tangled mess of metal and rubble.
Villagers said the bridge had been blown up on Saturday by men in uniform who arrived by military jeep, uncoiled wires and detonated explosives remotely.
They said the men responsible were Russians, but the Russian General Staff denied this.
Well, we all know the Russians wouldn't lie, would they?
Georgians Force to Clean South Ossetia Streets
Russian troops and their armed allies forced Georgian men to clean the streets of South Ossetia's bombed-out capital Saturday, avenging Georgia's attack on the breakaway province a week ago.
Three teams of ethnic Georgian men in their 40s and 50s were seen hauling debris from the streets of Tskhinvali. When approached, one of them confirmed he was being forced to work."Labor even turns monkeys into humans," said a Russian officer, who along with armed Ossetians escorted one group of about two dozen Georgians through the streets of the capital.
The Russian officer threatened to arrest an Associated Press photographer if he took pictures, and would not give his name.
Israel to surrender Jerusalem property to Russia
The government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is in the final stages of surrendering control of a major piece of property in downtown Jerusalem to Russia, reported The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
Former Russian President Vladimir Putin laid claim to Jerusalem's St. Sergius Church and its grounds about four years ago. Already then, Olmert expressed his willingness to relinquish the property, which also houses a branch of Israel's Agricultural Ministry and several environmental protection organizations.
The official transfer is expected to take place in the coming weeks,
according to a Foreign Ministry official.Critics of the move noted that Russia is eyeing a number of other properties in downtown Jerusalem that at various times over the past few hundred years were owned by the Russian Orthodox Church.
Also of concern is the precedent that surrendering property to the Russians will set, as many other plots in Jerusalem, including the land upon which the Knesset is built, are technically owned by the Greek Orthodox Church.
Why does Russia want land in Jerusalem?
Remarks with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili
And I shouted to the world, this is for – to bring in tanks. They built tank bases all over Abkhazia and in South Ossetia, in place of Java, without bringing in tanks yet. We told the world, this is about starting an invasion.
They started to bring in lots of military specialists, reconnaissance. They brought in paratroopers. Again, we screamed to the world, stop it. And there were some statements from Washington, but I have to tell you that for most of the European countries, with noticeably some remarkable exceptions, there was pretty muted and quiet reaction to all this. And the Russians were carefully watching this reaction. They were doing step by step – first some infrastructure, then some additional troops, then (inaudible) acts, then again infrastructure, again some intrusion – and wait, watching carefully what Europeans have to say, watching carefully what would be the counter-reaction of the international community. And it really did not follow.
And, Madame Secretary, as we were standing here last time a few weeks ago, there was intrusion of the Georgian – of Russian planes into Georgian airspace, just exactly in the lines of South Ossetia. And you remember as well as I do that then we downplayed it. I downplayed it myself. I said, well, they are here just to salute Secretary Rice. And normally, in the past, Russians would deny that. But that time they said, yes, this is us, we flew there, implying that there was intent to bomb against Georgians. And again, they watched the European reactions. No European country said anything about it.
So who invited the trouble here? Who invited this arrogance here? Who invited these innocent deaths here? Who is – not only those people who perpetrate them are responsible, but also those people who failed to stop it. And who is trying now to look for every excuse, saying, oh, you know, Georgians might have started it. Excuse me? Twelve-hundred tanks came into Georgia within few hours. There is no way you can mobilize those tanks in such a fast period unless you were ready. There were Russian pensioners taken off the streets of Moscow to fly the planes several days before the invasion. There was no way they were not preparing invasion. Why would they call back the pensioners? There were all these movements on the ground all around the place.
You know when it all started? I want the world to know. I was gone for holidays. My Defense Minister was gone for holidays. When the thing started, I had to rush back, cut my holiday short when the tensions started to raise. I had to summon back my – our Defense Minister. But most of our officials were gone. Most of decision-makers I tried to reach were gone for vacations. It was brilliantly selected timing for this intervention.
And, unfortunately, today we are looking evil directly in the eye. And today this evil is very strong, very nasty, and very dangerous – for everybody, not only for us.
...Russia has lots of tanks, but Russia, no tank is enough to crush the will of the free people. Because freedom’s light will never die here, because 1921 will never repeat itself here. Peace will never die and nor will liberty, democracy, and independence of Georgia.
...
And you know what? It’s always about something. Maybe – I would like – the world should ask the questions. When Russians destroyed Yukos, when Putin destroyed Yukos, nobody said anything. Then they start to say, oh, Russia has nice investment environment, because everybody has his own interest. When Russia went after international – when Russian agents poisoned President of Ukraine – ask Ukrainians, they have all the proof and evidence. Look at the face of President Yushchenko. Did any of big decision-makers do or say anything about that? Not talking about Russian agents that were killed in London and they carried out, basically, nuclear attack on downtown of London. Well, you know, that’s almost natural – comes as natural right to Russian leadership, because if they can poison President of Ukraine, what about their own agents? Why not?
How many different forms of polonium they can send to the world? Now it’s cluster bombs killing my children and women here and, by the way, your colleagues, foreign journalists. How many more things can these barbarians do, these cold-blooded killers do for the world not to blame the victims? Can you say that, you know, the victim of rape is to be blamed for the rape because she wore a short skirt? Or the victim of, you know, killing be blamed for the killing because he provoked the killer with, you know, some strange look in his eyes? That’s exactly what some of the people were trying to do now toward Georgia for the last several days.
Excuse me, but that’s exactly the guarantee that it will happen over and over and over again. Because the people with you are dealing – with whom you are dealing, they are all about – for them, lying is instrument of communication. Bullying and blackmailing is the best things they enjoy and the only thing they understand. It’s unity and strength of international community; nothing else can deter and stop them, because otherwise, they are like – they will stop – keep advancing, they will keep killing, they will keep destroying other countries. That’s what they are trying to do to my country right now as we speak.
These are the words of the man the West has abandoned. Please, please keep him and his nation in your prayers.
*****
Okay, flashback to July 31 this year:
Libya, Russia draft stronger energy ties
Al-Mahmoudi said Libya was planning to open an office in Moscow of its investment agency and hailed energy cooperation as a new era in bilateral relations.
"Our cooperation is elevated from a purely military and technical level," he said. "This is indeed a development worthy of mention in history texts."
The arms trade remains an important element of bilateral ties. Moscow hopes to sell Libya 2.5 billion euros worth of anti-aircraft systems, jet fighters, helicopters and warships.
Flashback to March 2007
Russia, Saudi Arabia sign $100-mln contract to build oil pipeline
BEIRUT, March 31 (RIA Novosti) - A Russian company signed Saturday the first ever contract, worth more than $100 million, to build an oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia with a Saudi company.
Stroytransgaz, a construction arm of Russia's energy giant Gazprom [RTS: GAZP], and Saudi Aramco concluded the contract in Dhahran. This is a breakthrough for Russian business to a totally new market, which is the most attractive in the Middle East.
The vice president of Saudi Aramco, Ali al-Ajmi, who signed the document from the Saudi side, welcomed the arrival of "a powerful Russian organization having its own advanced technology and a big working experience both in Russia and abroad."
He also said he hopes that this first ever contract of a Russian contractor to build oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia "will mark the beginning of a long-term mutually advantageous cooperation between the two companies."
Flashback to May 2007
What the Russian papers say
04/05/2007 20:00
MOSCOW, May 4 (RIA Novosti) U.S. missile defenses in Eastern Europe could trigger new arms race - Russian military chief of staff / Libya to spend over $2.2 billion on Russian arms/ Kazakhstan refuses to build trans-Caspian pipeline bypassing Russia/ Norilsk Nickel lays claim to 20% of global nickel market/ Gazprom, Rosneft may clash over Yukos assets
Human rights group accuses China, Russia supplying arms used in Darfur violence
CAIRO, Egypt: China and Russia, two of Sudan's trade allies, were accused by a top human rights group of supplying weapons to Khartoum that were used to fuel deadly violence in Darfur. The allegations, a violation of a U.N. arms embargo, come as Moscow and China have balked at U.S. and British efforts to put new pressure on Sudan.
China and Russia quickly rejected Amnesty International's allegations Tuesday that they supplied weapons and equipment that were used in Darfur. Khartoum called the report false.
"The report is totally incorrect. ... It is the sort of claim that has no material proof," Sudanese government spokesman Bakri Mulah told The Associated Press from Khartoum.
Russia and Syria enter gas deal
Russia has signed a deal to build more gas processing plants in Syria, according to the Syrian SANA news network. The Associated Press and Itar-Tass reported the story.
Russia will spend roughly $218 million constructing three gas-processing plants in order to produce 3.2 million cubic meters of gas per day. The Russian firm Story Gas will collaborate with the Syrian Gas Company to operate the plant. The construction is expected to be complete in 20 months.
Syria Is Said to Deliver Russia’s Air-Defense Missiles to Iran
Syria intends to supply to Iran ten Pantsyr-S1E air-defense systems that it will buy in Russia. Moscow won’t be officially notified about Iran’s portion of the deal, Israel’s Haaretz reported referring to Jane's Defense Weekly.
According to Haaretz, the contract for supplying 50 Pantsyr-S1Es to Syria worth over $730 million was concluded earlier this year. Iran has allegedly undertaken to pay for a portion of Syrian order in addition to its own purchase.
When it comes to Pantsyr air-defense systems, the contract with the United Arab Emirates was concluded in February. The Emirates ordered 50 systems based on facilities of MAN trucks. The contract budget is $734 million.
June 2007
Newspaper: Russia starts delivery of advanced fighter jets to Syria
MOSCOW: Russia has started delivery of top-of-the-line fighter jets to Syria under a new deal estimated to be worth US$1 billion (€746 million), a newspaper said Tuesday — but the report was quickly denied by the state arms trader.
The business daily Kommersant said Russia had begun delivering five MiG-31E jets under a deal apparently negotiated during Syrian President Bashar Assad's trip to Moscow last autumn.
Commenting on the report, Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin said in a statement that "all of Russia's deals in the sphere of military-technical cooperation comply with international law and Russia's obligations under various treaties and United Nations resolutions." He would not elaborate.
July 2007
Russia votes to allow private armies for energy giants
Russia's parliament voted yesterday to allow the country's two biggest energy monopolies, Gazprom and the state oil pipeline company Transneft, to employ and arm private security units. Under the deal, Russia's interior ministry will supply Gazprom with guns from its own armoury.
Supporters of the plan say that Russia's oil and gas installations - which are key to the country's boom and burgeoning economic revival - have to be protected from terrorist attack at all cost.
"A couple of terrorist acts and an ensuing ecological catastrophe would be enough to immediately declare Russia an unreliable partner and supplier of energy reserves," said Alexander Gurov, one of 341 MPs who backed the new law in the country's 450-seat Duma.
However, Gennady Gudkov of the Fair Russia party, said the law paved the way for the creation of corporate armies and described it as "a Pandora's box".
August 2007
New Photos Indicate Arms Flow to Darfur
Recent photographs purportedly showing Sudanese soldiers in the Darfur region moving containers from a Russian-made Antonov cargo plane onto military trucks reinforce suspicions that Sudan continues to violate a U.N.-imposed arms embargo, the London-based human rights group Amnesty International said.
The photographs, taken in July and released today by the rights group, also purportedly show Russian-supplied Mi-7 and Mi-24 military helicopters in the town of Geneina in Darfur.
Eyewitnesses in Darfur and the International Peace Information Service, based in Antwerp, Belgium, sent the photographs to Amnesty. The images bolster evidence published in a May report by Amnesty that accused Russia and China of having broken the arms embargo, according to a news release from the human rights group.
Russia fumes at claim it flamed tension with Syria
Top Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad's accusation on Thursday that Russia was partly responsible for recent tensions between Syria and Israel could undermine Israeli-Russian relations, a senior Russian diplomat in Tel Aviv told The Jerusalem Post.
Andrey Demidov, the No. 2 official at the Russian Embassy, said he was "disappointed" and "regretted" reports published Thursday that Russia was largely behind tensions between Syria and Israel, in an effort to increase arms sales to Damascus. "And I regret the statement made by Amos Gilad, because it can only undermine our relations," Demidov said.
Gilad, head of the Defense Ministry's Diplomatic-Military Bureau, said in an Army Radio interview, "At a certain time, the Russians caused the Syrians to believe that Israel was preparing for war.
"I think that they have stopped this," Gilad added. "Syria is not planning on attacking Israel, and Israel is definitely not planning on attacking Syria."
And that's just a little bit. There's so much of this stuff... and most of it wasn't headline news, here in the US.
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